Atmospheric Science Honours and Masters projects

Building an air pollution atlas for Australia using satellite observations

Air quality policy in Australia is inconsistent between regions and this is partly due to a limited number of ground-based observations. However, daily satellite observations of air pollution, including ozone, nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter, have been routine since the early 2010s around the world. So far, there has been only limited long-term analysis of the data collected over Australia. Satellites operated by NASA and ESA, such as OMI and TROPOMI, provide high spatial resolution information which you could use to calculate air pollution exposure, and trends over different timescales, building up an atlas of air pollution for Australia’s major cities as well background rural areas. In this project, you can also use ground-based weather and air pollution data to help validate the satellite information, gaining skills in Python coding, geospatial analysis, big data and remote sensing along the way. This project is at the cutting edge of space-based remote sensing work, with the potential to inform Australia’s air quality policy and research goals into the future.

• Project type: Honours or Masters
• Supervisor: Rob Ryan and Robyn Schofield
• Make an enquiry

Estimation of observation error biases and error correlation

Currently, just a few percent of the hundreds of millions of observations taken by satellites are used for weather and climate forecasting. A primary reason for this is that many of these observations have errors whose biases and error correlations are poorly known. In this project, you will explore and discover new and more accurate methods of estimating observation error biases and correlations and hence enable the wealth of information in these observations to be used to create more accurate weather and climate prediction systems.

• Project type: Honours or Masters
• Supervisor: Craig Bishop
• Make an enquiry

Future storms

Thermodynamic theory (Clausius-Clapeyron) tells us that the atmosphere should hold 7% more water vapour for every degree of global warming. This suggests that the most intense storms should produce more rainfall with climate change, and some studies have demonstrated that super Clausius-Clapeyron scaling (>7% / degree) is possible. However, this is only part of the story when we think about future storms. Large scale dynamics, moisture advection, and climate variability ultimately control the environmental conditions and the prevalence and variability of storms. That is, Clausius-Clapeyron scaling tells us that the most intense storms will rain more, but doesn't tell us how frequently and where those storms will occur. There has been much focus on environmental factors such as CAPE and shear in controlling storm occurrence and trends, but somewhat less focus on other aspects of storm trends and variability. This project will use available reanalysis and climate projection data to explore some aspects of the variability and trends of storms in Australia.

• Project type: Masters
• Supervisor: Todd Lane, Thi Lan Dao and Andrew Dowdy
• Make an enquiry

Improving climate projections of extremes using advanced ensemble post-processing techniques on CMIPx ensembles

One relatively low cost and promising approach for attempting to narrow the uncertainty in answers to these questions is by assigning weights to CMIPx ensemble members based on their performance relative to historical observations and then using this weighted ensemble to make a prediction. A plausible measure of the extent to which this approach can reduce projection error can be obtained by replacing the actual observations by pseudo-observation counterparts from just one of the CMIPx projections. One can then test the ability of sub-ensembles (that do not include the member used for generating the obs) weighted using the historical pseudo-observations to predict future pseudo-observations (e.g. from 2080-2100). In this project, you will strive to improve ensemble weighting techniques and design relevant metrics of changes in extremes

• Project type: Honours or Masters
• Supervisor: Craig Bishop
• Make an enquiry

MAXDOAS Trace gas observations over Melbourne and Dookie

Since 2023 we have been observing UV/Vis spectra over Melbourne from AirLab and will be commencing the same measurements at the Dookie campus using our AIRBOX facility. This multi-axis Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (MAXDOAS) observation uses the same observational principle as satellites and is how we monitor NO₂, ozone, formaldehyde, HONO and aerosols using remote sensing. Many of these compounds are criteria air pollutants / or tell us how methane and other volatile organic compounds are broken down in our urban and rural atmosphere. This project will combine atmospheric composition observations with meteorology to understand spatial/temporal variability. You will learn spectroscopy, remote sensing, radiative transfer principles as well as atmospheric chemistry. You will gain experience in working with large datasets and Python analysis tools.

• Project type: Masters
• Supervisor: Rob Ryan and Robyn Schofield
• Make an enquiry

Melbourne Donuts

This project explores the phenomenon of the ‘Melbourne Donut’ – when there is rainfall all around Melbourne, but little rainfall in the Melbourne basin itself. What are the reasons? Is it because we’re in the rain-shadow of the mountains, is it due to the urban effects, or is it an artefact of the radar measurements? This project will help solve the mystery.

• Project type: Honours or Masters
• Supervisor: Claire Vincent and Linden Ashcroft
• Make an enquiry

Mini Micropulse Lidar (miniMPL) aerosol observations in coastal and industrial environments

Aerosol optical properties can be retrieved using a 532nm pulsed lidar observation from a miniMPL instrument. Aerosols have both health and climate implications, and are a source of major uncertainty within our climate models. Lidar measurements provide vertical profile aerosol scattering and polarisation information – which allows us to gain insights into the aerosol composition. This project will analyse miniMPL observations from coastal regions and compare with coincident ground and satellite-based aerosol products. You will learn about Lidar techniques for aerosol observation and remote sensing. You will gain experience in working with large datasets and python analysis tools.

• Project type: Masters
• Supervisor: Rob Ryan and Robyn Schofield
• Make an enquiry

Ocean mesoscale turbulence shaping El Niño Southern Oscillation

El Niño and La Niña are the primary phases of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), a significant ocean-atmosphere interaction pattern that occurs every few years and impacts global climate with consequences that often affect millions and makes news headlines. These events are intrinsically coupled atmosphere-ocean phenomena. Both atmospheric forcings like weakening of Easterly Tradewinds and oceanic waves like Kelvin waves are well understood but not so much the contribution of oceanic eddies towards ENSO’s variability. Typical IPCC-class climate models do not have the adequate horizontal resolution to resolve the ocean's mesoscale eddies; typically they include parameterisations to encapsulate the ocean eddies effect. In this project, we would to investigate the role of ocean eddies and ocean dynamics in shaping up El Niños and La Niñas in the Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean. We will utilise global ocean-sea ice model output at various resolutions that either (i) fully resolve the ocean mesoscale eddies or (ii) have coarse resolution (like IPCC-class models) and require an ocean mesoscale parameterisation. You will learn to analyse large datasets (ocean model output) using a diverse set of tools and statistical techniques. You will also learn about ENSO and its dynamics and will gain a fundamental understanding of coupled atmosphere-ocean processes.

• Project type: Honours or Masters
• Supervisor: Navid Constantinou, Mandy Freund and Aditya Sengupta
• Make an enquiry

Mesoscale Cellular Convection over the Southern Ocean

This project will investigate mesoscale cellular convection (MCC) - distinct cloud patterns over the Southern Ocean that influence regional weather in southeastern Australia and play a key role in the global climate system. Building on data from the recent CAPE-k international field campaign (April 2024 – September 2025), you will examine the boundary layer structure, cloud and precipitation processes, and radiative impacts of MCC. The project will also explore the dynamical and environmental factors that control different cellular patterns and their transitions, providing insight into how atmospheric conditions shape these clouds. Understanding MCC is essential for improving weather and climate models, particularly in constraining climate sensitivity and understanding MCC’s downstream effects on southeastern Australia. This work integrates field observations, satellite remote sensing, and atmospheric modelling, offering hands-on experience with cutting-edge research tools and direct access to new, high-quality observational datasets from the Southern Ocean.

• Project type: Honours or Masters
• Supervisor: Yi Huang
• Make an enquiry

Storms on the Tiwi Islands: Simulating Thunderstorms under Different Climates

In the pre-monsoon season from October to December an afternoon thunderstorm frequently develops over the Tiwi Islands in the Northern Territory, Australia. It is so reliable that it has been given the name “Hector the Convector”. Due to its reliability, it provides an excellent natural laboratory for investigating thunderstorm behaviour. A series of high-resolution simulations have been run to test how the thunderstorm responds to different initial and boundary environments. In this project, you will use this output to determine the impacts of tropospheric winds, humidity, and temperatures on thunderstorm development. Simulations under past, present and future environments will be analysed to see if Tiwi Island thunderstorms could be changing.

• Project type: Honours or Masters
• Supervisor: Yi Huang and Chris Chambers
• Make an enquiry

Past climate reconstruction

The last decade has seen an explosion of research showing how corals and trees in both living and fossilized forms can be used to infer averages of the temperature and precipitation experienced while they were developing. These approaches provide proxy temperature and precipitation record dating back hundreds/thousands of years at locations where there were no temperature or precipitation observations made by humans. It is likely that more and more of these proxy temperature records will be discovered in the coming years at new locations. Each year more such proxy temperature and precipitation records are discovered. If selected, your PhD research will create new methods for finding the range of possible atmospheric and oceanic trajectories that are consistent with these observations. Your primary tool will be data assimilation methods which use climate models to optimally propagate and combine observational information that is distributed through space and time. A BSc (Hons) is a pre-requisite for the position. A major or minor in one or more of Applied Mathematics, Statistics and Physics would increase your chances of selection for the position.

• Project type: Honours or Masters
• Supervisor: Craig Bishop
• Make an enquiry

Probabilistic ENSO forecast using BoM forecast model in collaboration with CSIRO (potential top up scholarship available)

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), consisting of El Niño and La Niña events that occur every few years, influences year-to-year variations in temperature and rainfall over every continent and is one of the dominant influences over Australia. It may be possible to make simple predictions regarding the state of ENSO that answer simple questions such as “will next year be a La Niña?” annually, using existing forecast models. Can such statements be made with confidence, and are some types of events more likely to be correctly forecasted than others? This pilot project aims to assess what the limits of such forecasts are, and the circumstances under which forecasters can or cannot make such statements with confidence. This project will entail answering these questions using the Bureau of Meteorology’s forecast model, in order to improve ENSO forecasts for Australia in collaboration with CSIRO’s Data61. A student working on this problem will learn the basics of climate science and probabilistic forecasting, and will gain hands-on experience working with state-of-the-art climate data programming packages in Python and real climate forecast outputs. There will also be opportunities to interact with the BoM’s seasonal forecasting team.

• Project type: Honours or Masters
• Supervisor: Mandy Freund and Nandini Ramesh, CSIRO and BOM
• Make an enquiry

Strategic wind farm placement to balance the daily cycle of energy demand

The maximum wind speed, and therefore the maximum wind energy potential, occurs at different times of day in different place. Could we help balance the energy network through strategic placement of wind turbines? This project will combine meteorological insights about daily wind variability with knowledge about electricity demand patterns to propose strategic wind farm locations for balancing electricity supply.

• Project type: Masters
• Supervisor: Claire Vincent and Kelvin Say
• Make an enquiry

The imprint of ENSO diversity on global mean surface temperatures

Earth’s average global surface temperature is determined by the balance between incoming and outgoing radiation.  While anthropogenic climate change alters the energy budget at long time scales, El Niño Southern Oscillation events can cause temporary fluctuations. With increasing complexity of ENSO events in terms of temporal and spatial behavior, the impact of diverse ENSO events on global mean surface temperatures is not yet clear. This project can utilise a diverse range of climate model simulations, observations or even paleo evidence to assess the impact events like El Niño and La Niña events on our climate.

• Project type: Honours or Masters
• Supervisor: Mandy Freund and Andrew King
• Make an enquiry

The life cycle of mesoscale convective storms across southeast Australia

Mesoscale convective storms occur frequently over the tropics and mid-latitudes and have a large impact on local rainfall. These storms can produce severe weather hazards (e.g. damagin winds and flash flooding), but remain difficult to forecast. This project will apply a newly developed automatic identification and tracking method to investigate the life cycle of mesoscale convective storms across southeast Australia, through the lenses of satellite and surface observations. An improved understanding of these storms is critical for improving weather forecasts and mitigating the impacts of severe weather.

• Project type: Honours or Masters
• Supervisor: Yi Huang and collaborators at BoM
• Make an enquiry

Use of Machine Learning, Artificial Intelligence and High-Resolution simulation to improve coarse resolution models

Clouds and precipitation are primary sources of error in both weather and climate models. Because climate models need to be run for hundreds of years, they are run at a much coarser resolution than the models used for short-term weather prediction. The coarseness of climate model resolution causes them to mis-represent climate critical processes like oceanic upwelling near coastlines and associated vast regions of high albedo low clouds that influence the total climate warming to increasing Green House Gas emissions. Nevertheless, such processes are well represented by high resolution coupled weather forecast models. In this project, you will discover Machine learning methods to render coarse resolution models statistically indistinguishable from high resolution models filtered to the scale of the coarse resolution models.

• Project type: Honours or Masters
• Supervisor: Craig Bishop
• Make an enquiry

Variability of clear-air turbulence over Australia

Atmospheric turbulence is a major risk to aviation. There are three main sources of turbulence relevant for commercial aviation: convection (storms), mountain waves, and jet streams (wind shear). There has been much recent discussion about how turbulence from jet streams, i.e. clear-air turbulence, CAT, will change with climate change, but most research has been focused on other parts of the world. Over Australia there are weak or non-existent trends, and one hypothesis is that modes of variability (e.g., ENSO, SAM, etc.) create significant turbulence variability, which dominates over longer-term trends. In this project we will use simple metrics of CAT, applied to reanalysis data, to explore the variability of turbulence over Australia and examine this in relation to established modes of variability.

• Project type: Honours or Masters
• Supervisor: Todd Lane
• Make an enquiry

Weather forecasting using AI based Conditional Diffusion Model

The recent publication “CoDiCast: Conditional Diffusion Model for Weather Prediction with Uncertainty Quantification” shows the potential for diffusion models for producing rapid probabilistic weather forecasts. In principle, the approach allows for the conditioning of ensemble forecasts on any observation type. The overarching aim of the research would be to vastly improve on the very coarse resolution results obtained in the above publication.  Avenues for improvement include: (i) using a recently invented fast-high-rank inverse of  the climatological covariance matrix to reduce the complexity of the AI learnt mapping from IID noise to random realisations of the climate state (ii) reducing the dimension of the state space to be learnt through advanced dimension reduction techniques and/or focusing on short range regional forecasts.

• Project type: Honours or Masters
• Supervisor: Craig Bishop
• Make an enquiry

What controls the wind in Bass Strait?

Bass Strait is a target area for offshore wind development. This project will address the question of what controls the wind speed and potential wind energy production in this region, which is most likely influenced by a combination of synoptic weather patterns, funnelling of the wind by the topography and local-scale processes.

• Project type: Honours or Masters
• Supervisor: Claire Vincent and Andrew Dowdy
• Make an enquiry

What's going on with our seasons?

The abrupt end to winter this year has people asking, yet again, how our seasons are changing. In this project you will develop and explore metrics that define a ‘season’, from dominant wind patterns, storm frequencies and temperature. Using observations and reanalysis, you will help us answer the question: how are our seasons changing?

• Project type: Honours or Masters
• Supervisor: Linden Ashcroft , Andrew King and Kim Reid
• Make an enquiry

Comparing future Australian extremes under different climate overshoot scenarios

It is increasingly likely that humanity will overshoot the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to well under 2^oC. Assuming we do eventually achieve lower warming levels in the future, how will that interim overshoot period have affected our climate? Will it simply cause temporary changes that are reversed in the cooler future, or will some changes persist? You will investigate this for different overshoot scenarios, using data from climate model simulations. In particular, you will compare changes for extremes over Australia, such as the hottest and wettest days of the year – which potentially have greatest impact on society.

• Project type: Honours
• Supervisor: Pardeep Pall and Andrew King
• Make an enquiry